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| #797431 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 22.Aug.2015) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 55.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.1N 60.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
