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| #797792 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 23.Aug.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 Danny remains a sheared tropical cyclone. The low-level center is exposed well to the southwest of a small of area of deep convection that has formed within the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that investigated Danny this evening measured tropical-storm-force winds on the SFMR over a small area close to the convection. Based on these data, Danny remains a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory. The environment ahead of Danny is expected to remain unfavorable. Moderate southwesterly shear and dry mid-tropospheric air should cause weakening, and Danny is forecast to become a tropical depression on Monday, and degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate in a couple of days. The tropical cyclone is moving westward or 270/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as Danny is expected to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Since the chance of tropical-storm-force winds has decreased in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the tropical storm watch for those areas has been discontinued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 61.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.3N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.8N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 17.5N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
