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| #798084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 25.Aug.2015) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA * BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * ANGUILLA * SABA * ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA...AS WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 51.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
