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| #798357 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 26.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 56.0 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and move near the Virgin Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
