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| #798713 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 27.Aug.2015) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 Erika is not well organized at this time. Although deep convection increased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum, with considerable lightning activity, banding features were lacking. The convection is also not well organized on the Guadeloupe radar imagery. Recent high-resolution visible imagery shows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the northwest of the main area of thunderstorms. Data from the aircraft do not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. The latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previous estimates. With some adjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is kept at 270/14. For the next few days, Erika should move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should occur. However there is uncertainty as to how soon and how sharp this turn will take place. The future track of Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system likely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the east. There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to 5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity. The official track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous one mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position. This is close to the model consensus. As expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric environment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until later in the forecast period. In addition, with the reformation of the center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of interaction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased. This has implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track and intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
