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| #799119 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 28.Aug.2015) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA... ...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 72.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be near the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression on Saturday. There is a good possibility that Erika could even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
