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| #800319 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 02.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the center this afternoon. Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone for a bit longer. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of 2.5 from TAFB. Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours. Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection. Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Fred should move west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the Azores. The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and is near the middle of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 20.3N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 22.4N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 23.4N 40.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 25.3N 41.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 27.5N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
