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| #800480 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 03.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast. A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 21.5N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.9N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 22.3N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 30.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila |
