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| #800630 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 03.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters, the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable environment, but this is uncertain. The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS, GEFS mean, and HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 22.0N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 22.5N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 23.6N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 26.3N 42.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 29.5N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/0000Z 32.0N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Brennan |
