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| #801105 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 05.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Data from an ASCAT this morning confirmed what was estimated with conventional visible images. Although Fred still has a very well defined closed circulation, maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt. In addition, the NASA Global Hawk has been been sending live photographs of the tight circulation of low clouds associated with Fred from 60 thousand feet. Fred has been devoid of deep convection for a few hours, but as it occurred yesterday, new small convective cells are currently trying to pop. As stated in the previous forecast, if resilient Fred survives the strong shear during the next 24 hours or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification after recurvature. This is indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance, and the GFS global model. Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the steering currents are weaker, and the cyclone appears to be moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. A turn to the north around the ridge should begin tonight or early Sunday. Fred should then recurve as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow on Monday. The NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope, and is close to the multi-model consensus with more weight given to the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.8N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 25.6N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 27.0N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 28.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 32.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
