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#801189 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 05.Sep.2015)
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

After being devoid of convection for about the past 12 hours, a new
burst of thunderstorms has begun near the center of Fred. Cirrus
clouds motions suggest that shear remains fairly strong near the
center of Fred, although seemingly less than this time yesterday.
The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, in line with the TAFB
satellite estimate. Shear is expected to diminish in about a day,
which could allow the cyclone to reintensify around that time while
it moves over warm waters. However, any intensification is expected
to be short-lived with marginal water temperatures and increasing
shear likely by Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to the
previous one through 48 h, and is reduced a little bit at long range
to reflect the less favorable conditions.

Fred is moving northwestward at about 9 kt into a break in the
subtropical ridge. The depression should turn to the north and then
northeast during the day on Sunday while the cyclone moves on the
northwestern side of the ridge, with that motion expected to
continue for a couple of days. Model guidance is generally faster
during this time, and the new offical forecast is faster than the
previous one. The cyclone could turn then eastward and southeastward
on days 4 and 5 due to ridging building over the northeastern
Atlantic. The track forecast is of low confidence at long range
due to considerable uncertainty about the strength of the tropical
cyclone and the evolution of the ridge. There have not been any big
changes to the model consensus, so the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one at 96 and 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 24.1N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.8N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 32.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 31.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake