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| #801189 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 05.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 After being devoid of convection for about the past 12 hours, a new burst of thunderstorms has begun near the center of Fred. Cirrus clouds motions suggest that shear remains fairly strong near the center of Fred, although seemingly less than this time yesterday. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, in line with the TAFB satellite estimate. Shear is expected to diminish in about a day, which could allow the cyclone to reintensify around that time while it moves over warm waters. However, any intensification is expected to be short-lived with marginal water temperatures and increasing shear likely by Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one through 48 h, and is reduced a little bit at long range to reflect the less favorable conditions. Fred is moving northwestward at about 9 kt into a break in the subtropical ridge. The depression should turn to the north and then northeast during the day on Sunday while the cyclone moves on the northwestern side of the ridge, with that motion expected to continue for a couple of days. Model guidance is generally faster during this time, and the new offical forecast is faster than the previous one. The cyclone could turn then eastward and southeastward on days 4 and 5 due to ridging building over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is of low confidence at long range due to considerable uncertainty about the strength of the tropical cyclone and the evolution of the ridge. There have not been any big changes to the model consensus, so the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one at 96 and 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 24.1N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.8N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 32.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 32.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 31.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
