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| #801232 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 06.Sep.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Thunderstorm activity has continued to pulse near the center of Fred overnight, however, strong northwesterly shear is causing the cloud tops to be quickly shunted southeastward. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB. Little overall change in strength is expected today. In 24 to 36 hours the shear is expected to diminish, which could allow a brief opportunity for Fred to restrengthen. After that time, the cyclone is expected to enter an area of stronger westerly upper-level winds and cooler SSTs, which should halt further intensification. Late in the period, strong shear and marginal SSTs should cause weakening. An alternate scenario shown by the ECMWF is for the shear to cause Fred to weaken and become a trough of low pressure within the next 12 to 24 hours. Fred has finally made its much anticipated northward turn. A turn toward the northeast should occur later today as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a low-level ridge to its northeast. A turn toward the east and then southeast are forecast late in the period as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the 0000 UTC GFS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.9N 43.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 29.2N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 30.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 32.2N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 31.5N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
