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| #801868 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 08.Sep.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 Grace continues to produce disorganized bursts of convection near and south of the low-level center, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass shows that the cyclone still has a closed circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, although the scatterometer data suggests this could be a little generous. The cyclone is likely to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next day or two. However, it is moving through an environment of dry mid-level air and westerly vertical shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by 72 hours - a combination that should cause further weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, calling for Grace to become a remnant low in about 36 hours and to dissipate completely after 72 hours. There is a possibility, supported by most of the global models, that Grace could degenerate into an open wave before 72 hours. The initial motion remains 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to steer Grace or its remnants quickly westward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.3N 58.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
