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| #801922 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 09.Sep.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the last several hours. The system remains sheared with the low-level center located to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt based on the steady state nature of the system since the earlier scatterometer data. The current shear of about 20 kt from the west-southwest is expected to continue through the day, therefore, only slow strengthening is expected during that time. The shear is anticipated to lessen in 24-48 hours, which could provide a better opportunity for strengthening before the cyclone crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in 2-3 days. The cyclone is expected to lose tropical characteristics by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance. The depression has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory. A northward motion is expected to begin later today and then increase in forward speed during the next couple of days as a deep layer trough moves eastward toward the system. The cyclone is forecast to become embedded in strong mid-latitude flow in a few days, causing it to accelerate and turn northeastward and then eastward. Only small changes were made to the previous track forecast, and it lies near the consensus aids. The latter part of the track forecast excludes the GFS, which dissipates the system before it becomes extratropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.3N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 32.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 34.7N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 37.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 44.5N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 48.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 48.0N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
