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| #802138 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 10.Sep.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 There has been little change in the cloud pattern of Henri since the previous advisory. The tropical storm remains sheared with the low-level center displaced to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which could be conservative based on the earlier scatterometer data. This intensity estimate is on the high side of the latest Dvorak analyses. Henri is currently being affected by 15-20 kt of west-southwesterly wind shear and dry air has wrapped around the west and south sides of the circulation. The shear is expected to lessen later today, and that could allow Henri to gain some strength. However, significant intensification is not expected as the cyclone should cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours, where a sharp gradient in sea surface temperatures exist. Henri is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days, when it is expected to be over cold water. Most of the guidance shows the extratropical low dissipating by day 5, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The tropical storm has been moving erratically during the last several hours, but the general motion has been slowly northward. A faster northward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next 24 to 36 hours as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the east of Henri. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models are in good agreement on this overall scenario, and little change was made to the previous track forecast. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 33.0N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 39.3N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 43.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 48.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z 46.5N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
