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| #803252 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 18.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 After the burst of convection overnight, shear and dry air appear to be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection remaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not return, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight. Weakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low gradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Visible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/7. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the NHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree. The NHC forecast shows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward through dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the north. The official forecast continues to favor the weaker models, such as the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean, on the left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.7N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1200Z 18.9N 49.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 19.6N 51.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
