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| #803262 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 18.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 Deep convection has redeveloped north of the center of the depression this afternoon, buying the system some more time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. Given the unfavorable environment of shear and dry air, the system is still expected to become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the weakening low is expected to open up into a trough as shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts. The motion of the low-level center has been a little erratic during the past few hours, but a long-term average yields a motion of 300/05. A general west-northwestward motion driven by the low-level ridge to the north is forecast until dissipation, in agreement with the GFS model. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.0N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.4N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 19.6N 51.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 20.2N 53.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
