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| #803271 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 18.Sep.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 There is little to add about the depression that has not been already said, except that it is a resilient system. Satellite and buoy data indicate that the depression has a well-defined cyclonic circulation with winds of 25 kt, and is still producing bursts of deep convection. Given the unfavorable shear environment surrounding the depression, the NHC forecast insists on weakening, and calls for the depression to become a remnant low on Saturday. The low-level center has been moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should keep the depression on this general motion until dissipation in a couple of days. No change in track or intensity from the previous forecast is necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.8N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.4N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 20.0N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
