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| #803436 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 24.Sep.2015) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015 Ida is a sheared system and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a comma-shaped convective band to the east of the center. Since there has been no change in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. Global models no longer forecasting a decrease in the shear, and in general, all models are showing a gradual decay of the cyclone. On this basis, the NHC forecast maintains Ida as a depression through the forecast period. Ida has been moving toward the north at about 4 knots. The mid- tropospheric trough, which was affecting Ida, is gradually moving eastward away from the cyclone, and the subtropical ridge has begun to develop to the north of the cyclone. This pattern will favor a north-northwest to northwest track during the next 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will likely move westward as it is steered by the low-level easterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 21.2N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.9N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 25.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
