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| #803461 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 25.Sep.2015) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 The cloud pattern is similar to 24 hours ago, and still consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective band to the east of the center. The overall circulation, however, appears to be decaying. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given the strong shear and dry air affecting the cyclone, weakening is forecast. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 36 hours or sooner. The swirl defining the center has been moving northward at about 4 kt. A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the North Atlantic, and this high will force the shallow depression, or its remnants, to move toward the northwest during the next day or two. A sharp turn to the west or southwest is expected on Sunday, and by then the cyclone could have opened into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 22.1N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 22.9N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 24.0N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 25.5N 47.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 24.0N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 23.0N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
