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| #803490 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 26.Sep.2015) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 There continues to be little change in the satellite appearance of Ida with the low-level center exposed to the west of a persistent area of deep convection. The circulation of the system remains large and well defined. Recent ASCAT data suggest that the initial intensity is still 30 kt, which is a little higher than the Dvorak classifications. The strong westerly shear that has been affecting Ida during the past several days is expected to lessen by tomorrow. Consequently, the SHIPS guidance shows the system gaining strength. However, nearly all of the dynamical models show little, if any, strengthening of Ida. The official forecast continues to prefer the solution provided by the dynamical models due to the continued influence of dry air near the system. It is also possible that the depression could dissipate in a few days when a frontal boundary stalls just to the north of Ida, which could cause the circulation to become elongated or open into a trough. Given the various scenarios provided by the guidance, this forecast is quite uncertain. Ida is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is expected to turn west-northwestward by tonight and southwestward by late tomorrow as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. A general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected beyond that time. Although there is some spread in the guidance, most of the models agree on this general theme. A small northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast track beyond 48 hours, to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 24.0N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 24.7N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 24.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 24.4N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 23.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 23.5N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 23.7N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 24.1N 60.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
