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| #803512 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 27.Sep.2015) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Since the larger convective burst late yesterday afternoon, Ida has only produced a few small areas of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Satellite images also suggest that the center has become somewhat less defined over the past 24 hours. Based on the decrease in organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 25 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Ida is currently in an environment of moderate westerly shear and dry mid-level air, and little change in strength is anticipated during the next few days. By 72 hours, Ida is forecast to encounter strong upper-level northerly winds, which should cause the system to finally degenerate to a remnant low, however, it would not be surprising if this occurred sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/4. Ida is forecast to turn west-southwestward at a faster forward speed by tonight as a low-level ridge strengthens to the north of the depression. When the ridge moves eastward in a couple of days, Ida or its remnant should turn westward. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 24.3N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.6N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.2N 52.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 24.0N 58.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
