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| #803988 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 29.Sep.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 ...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 71.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas as issued a Hurricane Watch for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests in the Northwest Bahamas should monitor the progress of Joaquin. Additional watches or warnings may be required early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 71.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Central Bahamas by Wednesday night, with hurricane conditions possible by late Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the Central Bahamas through Thursday morning, with 1 to 2 inches expected over the Northwest and Southeast Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
