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| #804054 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 30.Sep.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THEIR WAY TO INVESTIGATE JOAQUIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 72.5W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. This includes the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 72.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Joaquin this morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the central Bahamas through Friday morning, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the northwestern and southeastern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the United States by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
