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| #804093 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:43 AM 30.Sep.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 72.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 72.2 West. Joaquin is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the central Bahamas through Friday morning, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the northwestern and southeastern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the United States by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
