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| #804138 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 30.Sep.2015) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND, RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI, ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 72.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 72.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 72.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
