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| #804227 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 PM 30.Sep.2015) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND AND BIMINI. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND, LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND, RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND AND BIMINI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND, LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 73.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 73.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
