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| #8045 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 12.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NOW HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....INCLUDING COZUMEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN END OF CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 916 MB...27.05 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON GRAND CAYMAN INDICATE THAT PEOPLE ARE STANDING ON THE ROOFS OF HOMES DUE TO SEVERE STORM SURGE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 916 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
