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| #804767 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 PM 02.Oct.2015) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 90SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
