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| #804842 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 02.Oct.2015) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 74.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 90SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 74.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.7N 72.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 46.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 74.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
