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| #804859 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 AM 03.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 ...DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 73.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue to move away from the Bahamas this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central Bahamas for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda on Sunday, with hurricane conditions possible by late Sunday. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Water levels should begin to subside overnight and later today as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
