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| #804888 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 03.Oct.2015) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 73.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..585NE 240SE 180SW 525NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 73.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.7N 71.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N 69.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.8N 67.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.1N 66.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 42.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
