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| #805043 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 03.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 ...SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN THREATENING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 70.5W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 70.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north- northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will pass west of Bermuda on Sunday. However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer to Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight, but Joaquin is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
