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| #805190 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 04.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE... ...JOAQUIN LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 67.7W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this morning, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
