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| #805369 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 04.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...RAGGED EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 66.4W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 66.4 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just west of Bermuda this evening, and pass north of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). During the past couple of hours, a 10-minute average wind speed of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport. On the southwestern end of the island an elevated site of 290 feet at Harbor Radio, a 10-minute average wind speed of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a gust to 96 mph (154 km/h) were recorded. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from a NASA research aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight, with hurricane conditions expected later this evening. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
