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| #805430 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 04.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 65.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will begin to move away from Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A sustained wind speed of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
