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| #805431 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 04.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with the hurricane have diminished. Microwave imagery indicates that the inner core has become less distinct, although the convective banding features remain well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane reported maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 87 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. This corresponds to an intensity of about 75 kt. Only slight cooling of waters along the path of the cyclone is indicated over the next couple of days, since Joaquin will be moving along the Gulf Stream. Dynamical guidance does not show the vertical shear becoming strong until about 48 hours. Slow weakening is predicted for the next couple of days, in general agreement with the SHIPS guidance. By 72 hours the sea surface temperatures should cool significantly, and the global models depict the system as embedded within a baroclinic zone. Therefore the forecast shows Joaquin becoming extratropical by that time. The initial motion continues to be north-northeastward, or 025/11 kt. A short wave ridge ahead of the hurricane appears to have caused some temporary slowing of the forward motion. In a day or two, the ridge flattens out, and the cyclone should begin to accelerate within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast through 48 hours is close to the multi-model consensus. The track, intensity, and wind radii for 72 hours and beyond are based on the consensus as well as guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for at least the next several hours, with possible winds to hurricane force in squalls especially at elevated locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 33.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.5N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 36.2N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.8N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 39.5N 54.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 42.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 47.0N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
