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| #805765 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 06.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 There has been little change in the structure of Joaquin during the past few hours. An eye has occasionally appeared in microwave imagery, and recent AMSR-2 and GPM data continue to hint at the presence of concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and continuity from the previous advisory. The 34 and 50 kt wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent ASCAT data. The initial motion is now 050/15. Joaquin is entering the westerlies, and the track guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone should move rapidly east-northeastward for the next three days or so. After that time, the guidance agrees on a slower motion, but there there is some spread between the GFS/UKMET which call for a northward turn and the ECMWF which turns the system southeastward. This part of the forecast lies a little north of the previous forecast near the average of the GFS and ECMWF models. The forecast track carries Joaquin over colder sea surface temperatures and close to a baroclinic zone in about 24 hours. This combination should cause the cyclone to weaken and begin extratropical transition. Transition should be complete between 36 and 48 hours, with Joaquin expected to weaken below hurricane strength by that time. The global models are in good agreement that Joaquin will produce gale- to storm-force winds as an extratropical low during the 48-120 hour period. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, with the extratropical portion based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 37.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 38.8N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 40.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 41.6N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 42.8N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 47.5N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 51.0N 12.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
