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| #806038 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 07.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 The organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the central convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and that is the advisory intensity. Joaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone. This combination should cause continued weakening and eventual extratropical transition. The current expectation is that the central convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops fronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical. The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than the previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to dissipate by 120 hours. Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge. This motion should continued for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone should turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 40.5N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 42.4N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 43.3N 28.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 44.2N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 16.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 43.0N 12.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
