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| #813651 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:48 PM 08.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 Geostationary satellite imagery during the late afternoon showed that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area near the southeastern Bahamas had become better defined. During the past few hours, thunderstorm activity has increased over the eastern portion of the circulation, and the system has acquired enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression, the twelfth of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is based a data T-number of 2.0 from TAFB and recent ship observations. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression Monday morning and should provide a better assessment of cyclone's intensity. The initial motion estimate is 305/12 kt. The depression is forecast to move northwestward tonight, then turn north- northwestward and northward on Monday and Monday night while it moves around the western portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward on Tuesday when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the model envelope. The depression is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow for strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the intensity consensus model IVCN. The small tropical cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area and frontal system that will be moving off the southeast United States coast in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 26.2N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 29.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 32.2N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low $$ Forecaster Brown |
