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| #813831 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 09.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Kate remains a compact tropical storm, consisting of a small central dense overcast and fragmented bands mainly to the north and east of the center. Earlier radar images from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that a partial convective inner core was forming. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory, based on the earlier reconnaissance data, but the system could be a little stronger. The NOAA hurricane hunters will be investigating Kate shortly, and will provide a better assessment of its intensity. The tropical storm is embedded in a low wind shear environment and over warm waters. These favorable conditions should allow the storm to strengthen during the next day or so. After that time, an increase in shear and cooler waters along the expected track should cause the strengthening trend to end. Kate is expected to be absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. The new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and remains on the low end of the model guidance envelope. Kate continues to move northwestward near the eastern edge of the Bahamas. The main steering features consist of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is expected tonight when the storm reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday when the cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart |
