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| #814023 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:54 AM 10.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb. Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature, with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation, consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over the cyclone. Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5 days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of 035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan |
