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| #814306 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 11.Nov.2015) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 Kate is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. The cloud pattern has become asymmetric, due to very strong westerly shear, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the associated deep convection. In addition, stable stratocumulus clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation, and there is some evidence of a developing warm front to the east of the center. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, based on the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The combination of continued strong shear and the interaction with an extratropical cyclone, located just to the west of Kate, should cause the hurricane to lose tropical characteristics tonight. After extratropical transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic forcing. The new intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Kate continues to race east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 065/38 kt. A slowdown is expected to begin soon, and an erratic northeastward to east-northeastward motion is likely during the next couple of days while Kate interacts with, and then absorbs, the extratropical low to its west. After Kate and the extratropical low merge Thursday night or early Friday, a faster northeastward motion is expected. The new track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 40.1N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/1800Z 41.5N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0600Z 42.2N 45.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1800Z 43.9N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1800Z 51.9N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1800Z 57.7N 13.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
