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| #8156 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 2100Z MON SEP 13 2004 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 62.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 64.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 66.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.4N 71.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 60.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART |
