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| #8164 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. THERE IS PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 60.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 62.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 64.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 66.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 68.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 71.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 73.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 74.5W 60 KT |
