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| #8192 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0300Z TUE SEP 14 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 85.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT.......125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 85.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.1N 86.2W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.8N 87.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 35.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 85.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH |
