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| #8197 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 13.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THAT TD-11 STILL HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND UW CIMSS ANALYZED SATELLITE WINDS SHOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WNW SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR AT 60-72 HOUR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER THIS TIME AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS SCENARIO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.2N 61.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 16.7N 62.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 64.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.4N 66.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 67.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 69.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.7N 71.3W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 24.8N 73.0W 70 KT |
