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| #8233 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 14.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 300 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A RECENT WIND REPORT FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS 37 MPH FROM THE SSW AND TD-11 SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 62.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER JARVINEN |
