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| #8235 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 14.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0900Z TUE SEP 14 2004 AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 61.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 63.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 67.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 70.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 73.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 62.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
