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| #8244 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 14.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 A RECENT WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS SSW/32 KTS. AND THE PRESSURE HAS GONE DOWN ANOTHER MILLIBAR TO 1009. THE SYSTEM IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. SATELLITE T NUMBERS ARE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 32 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR REGIME AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE NORTH...PART OF THE OUTFLOW FROM IVAN... WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS 200 MILLIBAR WIND FIELD ANIMATIONS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO OVER COME THIS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE SHIPS SOLUTION IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.6N 62.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.4N 63.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 65.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 67.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 68.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.6N 70.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 72.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 73.4W 70 KT |
